Negative Voting At Play

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A NEW poll showing the Tories on 30% in Wales throws some interesting light on the current state of play here.

Many have expressed complete outrage that they could be on such a high figure in the YouGov poll, only 2% behind Labour.

One can understand the sentiment considering the UK in general, the incompetence of Boris Johnson’s government and the brazen corruption revealed with awarding of various coronavirus contracts etc.

But, perhaps a key Welsh electoral dimension is in play with this poll, coming as it does only a couple of months before the Senedd Election.

And that is the fact that people tend to gravitate to the Tories as they see them as the only vehicle to rein in Welsh Labour in Wales.

People can see with their own eyes the state of Wales today.

And what Labour has done to it, or has failed to do for it, over so many years in power here.

The thought of 5 more years of this situation is frightening for many people, prompting them to think how can this be mitigated?

And it’s focusing minds on the question of who’s most likely to be able to keep Welsh Labour in check.

It’s a perfect example of negative rather than positive voting intentions at play.

No one could truly believe that Andrew RT Davies and his merry band of followers at the Senedd have a really positive and forward thinking vision for Wales as a nation.

It’s just they are seen as the best alternative to continued Labour dominance over Wales.

The sadness is that people used to think that Plaid were the vehicle to end Labour’s hegemony in Wales.

At the start of devolution, Plaid were on exactly the 30% level that the Tories enjoy in this poll.

But then they took the big march to the left and the rest is history as they say.

Their stagnant 23% figure in this poll at a time when support for Welsh Independence is hitting 40% suggests that there are independence votes to be garnered from a different direction.

That’s why pro-independence party Gwlad will be taking a different approach in the forthcoming election.

‘We’ll be trying to hive votes off both Labour and Conservative voters in the election here’ said a spokesperson for Gwlad.

‘With a positive message about Wales, delivered through a brand new vehicle, we think that many of their voters will be ready to say goodbye to these old and tired parties.’

The party will be recording their party political broadcast over the next few days, with an official campaign launch to be announced shortly.

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