A NEW poll has suggested that 35% of Independence supporting voters in Scotland could vote for a second Indy party next year.
The poll showed that a second party, targeting regional seats could win up to 28 such seats in Holyrood.
Which would eliminate much of the present unionist representation in the form of Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems.
And if the SNP maintain their vice-like grip on the constituency vote next year, the combined nationalist representation could then amount to around 90 to a 100 seats at Holyrood in 2021.
Which would then be an undeniable mandate for a second independence referendum.
All this is not mere idle speculation as a second independence party is now in place in the form of the Independent Scotland Party (ISP).
For all the SNP’s dominance of the Scottish political scene, the very fact that they do so well at constituency level counts against them on the regional list because of the nature of the Additional Member voting system.
Which then allows the unionist parties to dominate the regional list (56 seats) and act as a block to frustrate moves towards independence.
It’s probably too much to expect the SNP to urge their voters to cast their second vote for another indy party next year, even though that makes sense for the independence cause numbers wise at Holyrood..
That tactical voting argument will probably have to be made to the voters by the wider YES Scotland movement.
The question of using the second vote tactically will also be very relevant here in Wales next year.
Especially as we will have 3 out-and-out anti-Wales parties on the ballot list, in the form of Abolish the Assembly, Brexit Party and UKIP. All battling amongst each other for regional seats.
In such a scenario, it makes more sense than ever that Wales has a new, strong nationalist voice to counter these forces in the form of GWLAD. As a party, we will also primarily be targeting these regional seats (there are 20 in all).
Independence supporting voters in all parts of Wales need to remember that UKIP managed to gain 7 regional seats in 2016, by merely gaining around 3,000 regional votes in each constituency.
A second independence party for Wales should be able to reach that same amount with the right tactical thinking mindset in place amongst indy supporting voters.
Hopefully, YES Cymru can also play a role here in informing and directing supporters where best to place their second vote to boost the nationalist cause next year.
In Scotland, next year’s tactical voting will all be about fast-tracking independence.
Here, with Westminster actively encouraging the anti-Wales parties, our tactical voting may well be be more about defending Welsh democracy itself.